When they are announced tomorrow, Netflix may become the first studio to land three Best Picture nominees in one year. The nominations will likely reveal what we already know; Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” and Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” are major players. But, there is a chance Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” lands key nominations in every category and emerges as a true contender. The following are the surprises/shocks that I’m predicting.
BEST PICTURE: ‘Nightmare Alley’ gets into the 10th spot.
We, more or less, have 8-9 sure-things in this category: Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, CODA, Dune, King Richard, Don’t Look Up, and Tick Tick … Boom! This leaves us with one spot, some believe an out-of-left-field foreign film will nab that final tenth spot (Trier, Hamaguchi, Almodovar). Others believe the Academy will go the way of the PGA and nominate “Being the Ricardos.” I say, trust in the power of Guillermo del Toro — by all accounts, the industry loved “Nightmare Alley,” it will possibly get in.
BEST DIRECTOR: All five DGA nominees will get in.
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”
I’m thinking all five of the DGA nominees get in. There is the off-chance that a foreign filmmaker nabs a nom, maybe Hamaguchi or Trier. Spielberg would be on the outside looking in if any of these filmmakers manage to surprise. However, if enough people have seen Spielberg’s film, which was very slow to send out screeners, then he’ll get nominated. Otherwise, Alternates: Adam McKay (“Don’t Look Up”), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”), and Marcus Reinaldo Green (King Richard)
BEST ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio gets his sixth nomination.
Four sure-things: Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”), Andrew Garfield (“tick, tick…BOOM!”), Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”), and Will Smith (“King Richard”). That leaves us with the final slot. It could be Bradley Cooper, Javier Bardem, Nicolas Cage or Simon Rex. What I’m thinking is that it’ll be an irresistible option for the Academy to go the same route as BAFTA by nominating Leonardo DiCaprio’s “Don’t Look Up” performance. The film was seen by hundreds of millions of people, which means voters have seen it, and having DiCaprio at this coming March’s ceremony will prove to be a no-brainer for ratings.
BEST ACTRESS: Kidman snubbed. Haim gets the fifth spot.
I don’t think this category is as unpredictable as some may think. Yes, there is no Frontrunner, but I can’t see the Academy ignoring Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”), Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) and Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”). Licorice Pizza’s Alana Haim has been getting some much-needed late-campaign momentum and people just love her narrative. Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), Rachel Zegler (“West Side Story”) and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) could jump in and sideline Haim, but it’s her nom to lose at this point.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto and Bradley Cooper are part of the final five.As it stands, come nomination morning, we will definitely hear the names of Ciaran Hinds (“Belfast”), Troy Kotsur (“CODA”), and frontrunner Kodi Smit-McPhee, (“The Power of the Dog”). As you know, I’ve been firmly planted on the Jared Leto bandwagon and I do believe his “House of Gucci” performance was a gonzo brilliant one. Ditto Bradley Cooper in “Licorice Pizza.” I can see Mike Faist (“West Side Story”) getting plenty of support as well. Some are predicting a surprise nom for Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), but his was the weakest performance in an exeptional film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ann Dowd gets in for “Mass”
Much like the other categories, Supporting Actress has four almost-certainties: Caitriona Balfe (“Belfast”) Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”) and Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”). Maybe the Academy goes the BAFTA route and chooses Ruth Negga (“Passing”. How about some inclusivity with Marlee Matlin (“CODA”). I’d lean more towards Cate Blanchett (“Nightmare Alley”) … and yet, I’m picking Ann Dowd (“Mass”) as the big shocker. Why? Everyone loves her, “Mass” was an actor’s showcase and she’s the big name from a stellar cast of four supporting turns.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM: “Flee” becomes the first ever animated movie to get nominated in this category.
The power of Cannes will be in full-gear again in this category, with Farhadi, Hamaguchi, Trier and Rasmussen all getting in. The lone non-Cannes nominee could be Sorrentino’s “The Hand of God.” Why the hesitation? I’ve been hearing chatter about how voters aren’t too keen on this film. If that’s the case, maybe “Compartment N.6” squeezes in or, from what I’m hearing, “Playground” (which has been playing great with some of the voters I’ve been speaking to in recent days.
The other categories.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Belfast”“Don’t Look Up”“King Richard”“Licorice Pizza”“The French Dispatch”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“CODA”“Drive My Car”“Dune”“The Power of the Dog”“The Lost Daughter”
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Belfast”“Dune”“Nightmare Alley”“The Power of the Dog”“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
“Attica”“Flee”“The Rescue”“Summer of Soul”“Procession”
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Belle”“Encanto”“Flee”“Luca”“The Mitchells vs. The Machines”
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